Kyrgyz Constitution

Thu Jun 17 13:07:11 PDT 2010

The question Kim raises (and I'm glad your husband is safe--I didn't realize he was in the South) is whether constitution-making ought to go forward in the face of instability.  My view is that in Kyrgyzstan it not only should hold the referendum, it must.  The current conditions are a result of the limited legitimacy of an interim government.  (BTW, I don't consider either the NYT or RIA Novosti the best sources.  At the start of the events 24.kg, Akipress, Eurasianet, and Al Jazeera were the best sources.)

Here is my analysis of the events:

The events in Osh are, according to University of Montana grad and long-time Osh resident James Hart, "the worst that can be imagined."  I have put together a summary based on the reports I have received from numerous sources, Kyrgyz, Uzbek, and current and former American residents of Osh.

As many of you know, Kyrgyzstan is poverty-stricken, with high unemployment and not many prospects for young people.  Ethnic tension and violence between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks go back centuries to the period when Kyrgyz nomadic tribesmen had to deal with the urban Uzbek merchants.  Uzbeks in the South of Kyrgyzstan continue to dominate the merchant class.  Kyrgyz dominate the government institutions.  The Uzbeks tended to grow in wealth at the (falsely) perceived expense of the Kyrgyz.  The Kyrygz perception of Uzbeks as conniving merchants is reflected in ethnic jokes of the kind that would have been told of Jews in pre-WWII Europe.

The other key source of tension is the North-South divide and this divide underpins the beginning of this week's violence in Osh.  Southerners always felt short-changed by the Russified and more cosmopolitan North.  This changed somewhat after the 2005 "revolution," which ousted Northerner Askar Akaev and ushered in Southerner Kurmanbek Bakiev.  Since I left Osh in 2007, the Bakiev administration had been increasing its agitation, propagandizing the South about its ill-treatment to explain Bakiev's lack of progress there.  Over time the Uzbeks in the South have been increasingly scapegoated-blamed for the poor condition of ethnic Kyrgyz.  This has led to increased instances of inter-ethnic violence.  Minor incidents, such as a traffic accident, could spin into a violent ethnic clash.  Youth gangs were common when I was in Osh during 2005-2007.  I'm not necessarily talking about groups roving about looking for someone to rough up (although there are those), but about something more akin to the gangs of West Side Story.  Word would be passed that one group would meet another in the field next to the Nirvana Restaurant, for example.  And these were not merely criminal gangs.  One of our friends, a law student from an upper middle class family, lost his eye when he was knifed by a guy from the other group.  I met his attacker later that year-at a Model UN conference.  He was also a law student (expelled because of the fight, however.)  In short, I think that the claim that this week's violence in Osh was attributable solely to the "rougher" classes is too simplistic.  In any event, this week's violence was not a West Side Story.   It was a Rwanda story.

Until recently two things kept a lid on the violence-the relatively stable government and the Osh Chief of Police, Asanov.  (In earlier years, charismatic leaders of organized crime groups kept things in check but they have since been assassinated.)  When the April uprising threw Bakiev and his people out of the country the stable government was gone, replaced by an interim government that had limited legitimacy in the North and less in the South, notwithstanding that the interim President, Roza Otunbaeva is from Osh.  In Osh and Jalalabat, Bakiev supporters briefly removed the interim Governors and mayors, adding to the instability.  When the interim government transferred Asanov, the Osh Chief of Police who was respected by both Kyrgyz and Uzbeks, to Bishkek two key checks on inter-ethnic violence went missing.

On the night of June 10, an Uzbek-Kyrgyz gang fight spun out of control and rioting began.  Kyrgyz, who had better access to weapons as a result of the April uprising and their Kyrgyz "brothers" in the militsia and the military, quickly took the offensive against Uzbeks.  In the commercial districts, looting, vandalism, and arson was indiscriminate but fell most heavily on the Uzbeks because they own most of the shops.  Young Kyrgyz men poured into Osh from outlying villages to aid their "brothers."  They went on murderous rampages in Uzbek neighborhoods within the city.  The key Uzbek neighborhood, however, is in the southeast part of town, across the Ak Burra river, which means that access to the neighborhood can be controlled and it sounds like harm there was more limited.

The official estimates of deaths of 100-200 is widely believed to be off by a factor of 10.  Injured Uzbeks could not go to the hospitals or clinics for treatment without being attacked.  Many victims died in fires.  The violence spread to other towns and cities in the region.  Jalalabat suffered the worst in the last two days.  Refugees, all Uzbek, now number in the tens of thousands.  Some Uzbek towns have been spared.  Aravan, which is about 20 miles west of Osh, is an Uzbek center and because there is only one way into the town, some of the Kyrgyz gangs have not gone there.  Uzgen, another predominately Uzbek town between Osh and Jalalabat, has as far as I can tell been spared.

Peace Corps volunteers from Osh and other Americans have been evacuated.  Other Peace Corps volunteers in Kyrgyz villages remain there for now.   Osh has become less violent as Uzbeks fled and looting targets dwindled.  There is now another crisis-electricity and water are off and food supplies have run out.  The International Red Cross is already on the scene, so if you want to contribute in some way, that would be the first NGO to consider.

There have been acts of good.  Many Kyrgyz have sheltered their Uzbek neighbors from the violence.  Joint Uzbek-Kyrgyz vigilante groups have organized in some neighborhoods and are keeping the gangs away.

Alisher Khamidov, an Uzbek and native of Aravan and Osh, who spoke at this year's University of Montana Central Asia Conference, is currently in Aravan.  He is safe and has been posting to his Facebook page and to Eurasianet.  I have heard nothing from our other friends and colleagues-Erkingul K., whose family's apartment is very close to the worst destruction, or any of the Osh State faculty.  James Hart is in Bishkek, but his wife and her family (Kyrgyz) are in Osh but are safe.  I have already mentioned that Aimona Tashieva's parents are in Osh and are apparently safe, although she has not heard from them for several days.  Without electricity, cell phones cannot be recharged, which explains the lack of communication.  I am sure that the internet cafés took a hit, so there is little coming over the internet.

This is a terrible tragedy.  The Osh that many of us came to know and love has been devastated.  The worst devastation is not to the buildings or the businesses but to the social fabric.  I doubt that will be repaired in our lifetimes.

A greatest mystery is the silence from Uzbekistan.  Karimov must have enough problems of his own and so he must not want to take on this one.  Considering the weakness of the Kyrygz state and the relatively greater power of Uzbekistan, it is surprising that they have not exploited the situation by moving in "peace-keeping" troops, South Ossetia-style.

So, as I write, it sounds like the violence has burnt itself out.  Humanitarian aid is next, with rebuilding to follow.  With much of Osh's Uzbek neighborhoods reduced to ashes, this will take quite some time.

Prof. Jeffrey T. Renz
School of Law
The University of Montana
32 Campus Drive
Missoula, Montana  59812
406-243-5127

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Today's Topics:

   1. RE: kyrgyz constitution (Kim L. Scheppele)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Message: 1
Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2010 20:25:04 -0400
From: "Kim L. Scheppele" <kimlane at Princeton.EDU>
To: <conlawprof at lists.ucla.edu>
Subject: RE: kyrgyz constitution
Message-ID:
	<A3678CB67F82594D95D06AFBC1EE55B0054067A2 at EXCLUSTER2.pu.win.princeton.edu>

Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"

Thanks to many of you for off-list expressions of concern.  I'm happy to
report that my husband made it safely back to the US today from
Kyrgyzstan after some quite nervous-making moments.   

On the subject of our list:  there are now calls from the NGO community
in Kyrgyzstan to postpone the constitutional referendum scheduled for 28
June.  The International Crisis Group has one such call at
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2010/asia/
kyrgyz-provisional-government-must-intensify-stabilisation-efforts-in-so
uth.aspx .

As journalists and aid workers have made their way into the communities
affected by the well-organized killing campaign against ethnic Uzbek
citizens of Kyrgyzstan, it is becoming clearer that the numbers murdered
are well above the 170 or so officially recorded and will be in the
thousands.    One estimate today says that more than 1,500 people were
killed in Osh alone.  In addition, many of the ethnic Uzbek women who
are now refugees were raped.   Some 75,000 ethnic Uzbeks from Kyrgyzstan
have taken refuge in Uzbekistan; another 15,000 are massed at the border
trying to enter Uzbekistan.  Humanitarian workers estimate that the
number of displaced persons in this crisis tops 200,000, including those
displaced within Kyrgyzstan itself.  And the known refugees are almost
all women and children; no one yet knows what happens to the husbands,
brothers and fathers who stayed behind.  

Under those conditions, it is hard to imagine that the government could
or should go ahead with a referendum on a new constitution when so much
of the largest minority group in the country is not resident in the
place where they would vote.   Whole sections of Osh and Jalal-Abad have
been burned to the ground so the residents of those areas cannot easily
go back.  

Some in the interim government believe that the killing campaign against
the Uzbek minority was designed precisely to throw off the
constitutional referendum.   Nonetheless, the government still wants the
constitutional referendum to go forward or else they think this will
allow those responsible for the bloodshed to "win."  While I understand
their position, there is a different sort of loss to constitutional
legitimacy if a new constitution is approved only by the dominant ethnic
group in the country.   It's a dreadful situation, first and foremost
for those who are suffering directly but also for a fragile
constitutional state.    

I know our list is not about Central Asian politics.  So I'll stop
there.    For those of you interested in following the news, the Russian
news service RIA Novosti (English page at http://en.rian.ru/ ) has been
consistently ahead of the breaking news items most days.  The NY Times
coverage has been pretty good since they got two reporters into the
region a couple of days ago. The Guardian has also been good at
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/kyrgyzstan .   

Best

Kim

Kim Lane Scheppele

Director, Program in Law and Public Affairs

Laurance S. Rockefeller Professor of Sociology and Public Affairs 

in the Woodrow Wilson School and University Center for Human Values

Princeton University

415 Robertson Hall, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University,
Princeton, NJ 08544

Phone:  609-258-6949;  Email:  kimlane at princeton.edu

LAPA website:  http://lapa.princeton.edu

From: conlawprof-bounces at lists.ucla.edu
[mailto:conlawprof-bounces at lists.ucla.edu] On Behalf Of Kim L. Scheppele
Sent: Thursday, June 03, 2010 6:42 PM
To: Renz, Jeff; conlawprof at lists.ucla.edu
Subject: kyrgyz constitution

In case any of you are following the debates over the new Kyrgyz
constitution, here is a link to an English translation of the draft
under discussion:
http://www.venice.coe.int/docs/2010/CDL%282010%29058-e.asp .

There will be a referendum on this constitution on 28 June. 

The main new highlights are:  a) a move from a presidential to a
parliamentary system of government, and b) the abolition of the
constitutional court and its substitution by a special chamber within
the supreme court.

There is a call out for observers to monitor the constitutional
referendum.  OSCE is organizing these observers.  You can see their
general mission statement at
http://www.osce.org/odihr-elections/item_12_44057.html  and the
specifics of this mission (including application form) at
http://www.osce.org/documents/pdf_documents/2010/05/44057-2.pdf .
Observers are expected to go through training on site and to be in
Kyrgyzstan for 6 days.   If any of you have wanted a front-row seat for
constitutional creation, here's your chance.  To apply, you should
contact your country's mission to the OSCE (for the US, it's the one in
Vienna).  A full list of mission addresses is here:
http://www.osce.org/contacts/index.php?src_type=3 .   

My husband has been living in Bishkek for three months now and he can
vouch that it is a fascinating place.   By contrast with the mangled
press release that Jeff circulated (something was definitely lost in
translation!), it does in fact seem like the current government is
merely transitional and will in fact step down once the new constitution
is  approved and elections can be held for the new parliament.    That
said, there is still non-trivial tension between the ethnic Kyrgyz and
ethnic Uzbeks in the South and ethnic Russians in the North.   If you're
thinking of going and want more information, email me and I can tell you
more than the list will bear!

best

kim

Kim Lane Scheppele

For 2009-2010:

George W. Crawford Visiting Professor of Law and Robina Foundation
Senior Fellow

Yale Law School

433 Sterling Law Building, 127 Wall Street, New Haven, CT 06520
Phone:  203-432-4890

email:  kim.scheppele at yale.edu

Usually:

Director, Program in Law and Public Affairs

Laurance S. Rockefeller Professor of Sociology and Public Affairs 

in the Woodrow Wilson School and University Center for Human Values

Princeton University

415 Robertson Hall, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University,
Princeton, NJ 08544

Phone:  609-258-6949;  Email:  kimlane at princeton.edu

LAPA website:  http://lapa.princeton.edu

From: conlawprof-bounces at lists.ucla.edu
[mailto:conlawprof-bounces at lists.ucla.edu] On Behalf Of Renz, Jeff
Sent: Thursday, June 03, 2010 1:21 PM
To: conlawprof at lists.ucla.edu
Subject: A blooper nomination

Although it's not a exam answer (it appears in a press service), I say
this one qualifies for the conlaw list because it refers to Kyrgyzstan's
upcoming constitutional referendum:

Transitional period president Roza Otunbaeva is gradually getting used
to her role - she has made working tour of Chui oblast today with
standard visits to farms, factories, schools, construction sites, etc.
It is necessary to get to know the electorate in the run up to the
referendum. She was joined on this tour by the standard escort:
governors, assistants, journalists, body guards, press service. Faces of
the escort will become more flattering day by day, while the wish to
rule longer will become stronger and stronger. This is standard. Though
the people wish to have a non-standard leader.

Prof. Jeffrey T. Renz

School of Law

The University of Montana

32 Campus Drive

Missoula, Montana  59812

406-243-5127

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