same sex marriage polls; ??geography, territorial jurisdiction

[Marc Poirier]

Concerning polls evaluating support among various cohorts of population 
for same sex marriage, national polls don't tell the whole story.  Smaller 
social and jurisdictional units are also important, depending on why 
you're  looking at the poll.
 
Here in New Jersey a Zogby poll from May 2005 showed that 55 % of likely 
voters supported same sex marriage, while 40 % opposed it.  Also, 61 % 
were opposed to a constitutional amendment to ban it.  Those figures are 
high enough to suggest that our state legislature may yet enact same sex 
marriage; and to suggest to the state supreme court, which is currently 
slated to hear a challenge to the bar on same sex marriages based on the 
state constitution, that a favorable ruling will not necessarily unleash a 
destabilizing political firestorm. 

We could fine tune it a bit more.  I strongly suspect that polls of major 
urban areas (certainly on the coasts and in the upper Midwest) would show 
a majority support for same sex marriage.  These centers of a progressive 
viewpoint here are typically offset by more traditionalists, often rural 
centers, in other parts of each state.  If the definition of marriage were 
assigned to local law, we would have seen same sex marriage years ago. 
Indeed, the first municipalities enacted domestic partnership ordinances 
about twenty years ago. (To be sure Dianne Feinstein, then Mayor of San 
Francisco, vetoed the first one, leaving Berkeley to do the honors.)

In verifying the Zogby poll I refer to above, I found another interesting 
one, also from May 2005, that polled American Catholics on a number of 
topics.  While only 39% supported same sex civil marriage and only 29% 
sacramental marriage for same sex couples, 62 % supported legalizing civil 
unions.  This data suggests strongly to me that the center of gravity on 
the legal status of same sex couples is civil unions.  At least for the 
time being. 

To be sure, given the strong views and resources invested at each end of 
the spectrum on same sex marriage, the notion of averaging out to a 
central position on the issue may not be correct.  The politics are 
unstable.

Warmly,

Marc R. Poirier
Professor of Law
Seton Hall University School of Law
One Newark Center
Newark, NJ  07102
973-642-8478
c


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