Iraqi and American democracy (thinking ahead)

[Sanford Levinson]

Assume that US pressure is "successful" and an Iraqi "constitution" (the
scare quotes are a way of referring to the almost undoubted
"incompleteness" of any such document that can be offered by the 15th)
is indeed presented to the Iraqi people, who will then presumably begin
some process of discussion toward an October 15 (I believe) referendum.
As everyone knows, it can be "vetoed" by the 2/3 negative vote of three
governorates.  So tell me this:  If the "constitution" leaves the rights
of the Kurds up in the air, what incentive do they have to support it?
(Iraqi patriotism?  98% of the Kurds in an informal referendum at the
time of the January election voted for independence.  The Galbraith
article in the NYReview noted that there is no discernable Iraqi
nationalism among the Kurds, who simply will not allow non-Kurdish
military or police into their territory.)  How exactly would the Kurds
be worse off with a rejected constitution than with one that put their
future, at least formally, in the hands of the Shiite majority (which,
who knows, might even coalesce with the 20% Sunni minority to screw the
Kurds yet once more)?  And, as Galbraith also points out, there are at
least three governorates with a Sunni majority.  What incentive will
they have to accept a constitution that puts their fate in the hands of
their bitterest enemies?  

Does anyone have confidence (and, if so, on what is that confidence
based) that the US has any plausible policy for the "day after" the
rejection of the Iraqi constitution?  In the alternative, does anyone
have a plausible "non-faith-based" belief that the Constitution will in
fact survive any reasonably fair ratification process?  Does that
matter?  Isn't it clear that the Iraqi constitution is being used as an
excuse for an inglorious withdrawal from Iraq?  (The bright line, for
me, of Bush's victory is that I have no doubt that the Republicans would
be accusing Kerry of near-treason if he were to engage in the same kind
of withdrawal that is clearly in the cards--see British Foreign Minister
Jack Straw's interview in today's Financial Times.  Now the Republicans
will have to own up to their support of Bush, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, etc.)


sandy