Statistical disparity.

John C. Eastman res07ujr at VERIZON.NET
Thu Feb 15 13:35:08 PST 2001


Don,
If I add in all 180,000 invalid ballots, that merely increases the nominator in
the voter turnout equation, resulting in a 98.6% voter turnout among African
Americans (assuming the NAACP 15% figure is correct) -- an even more improbable
number than I calculated in my original post.  Has anyone seen a report of
actual turnout broken down by race?  What is the NAACP's 15% of total voter
turnout figure based on?  Given the allegations being leveled at the hearings
being held by the U.S. Civil Rights Commission, these facts are important, are
they not?
John Eastman
Chapman University School of Law

Don Crowley wrote:

> While it is certainly possible that the NAACP estimate of voter turn out is
> way to high, some of the disparity John Eastman points to might be caused by
> using the wrong set of voter totals.  The Sec of State number is of "valid
> votes".  There were slightly over 180,000 ballots that were ruled invalid
> (undervotes or overvotes). In some counties these votes came
> disproportionately from African-American areas.  For instance, according to
> an account by Marc Danner in the New York Review of Books, Duval County had
> 26,909 ballats thrown out with more than 40% of these ballots coming from
> predominantly black districts.
>
> Don
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "John C. Eastman" <res07ujr at VERIZON.NET>
> To: <CONLAWPROF at listserv.ucla.edu>
> Sent: Wednesday, February 14, 2001 1:03 PM
> Subject: Statistical disparity.
>
> > I have been reviewing some of the voter turnout statistics from the
> Florida election.  The NAACP aat a press conference in November that
> African-Americans accounted for 15% of the voters who voted on election day
> in Florida -- up from 9 or 10% in 1996.  The Florida Secretary of State's
> office reports 5,963,110 valid votes were cast in the election (of which
> 894,467 would be cast by African-Americans, if the NAACP report is correct).
> Yet only 934,261 African-Americans were registered to vote in the 2000
> election, meaning that African-American voter turnout was 95.7%.  Can that
> possibly be true?  Overall voter turnout in Florida was 68.1%.  If it is
> true, can the allegations being aired at Civil Rights Commission hearings
> this week about African-Americans being denied access to the polls also be
> true?  What am I missing here?
> > John Eastman
> > Chapman University School of Law
> >
> >
> >
> >
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